Every Saturday · The Week in Podcasts

The Week in Podcasts · Oct 3 to Oct 9

Bonds Reprice Toward 6%; Breadth Breaks First

Long yields split the week's guests: Bianco is buying near 5.5%, Peccatiello calls 6% fair, Timmer runs the equity math.

50 episodes from 35 shows · the top 10 · every episode at the end

if that yield goes up, the S&P has to listen. And if it ignores it, we get an 87, a 1987.Jurrien Timmer▶ hear it at 27:57

#1 The Compound and Friends

This Is Where the Rubber Meets the Road, with Jurrien Timmer

Jurrien Timmer (Fidelity Investments) · Oct 9

Timmer's case: the 10-year at 5.3% nominal and 2.9% real is now competitively priced against equities, so every leg higher in yields compresses the multiple. Earnings growing 30% to 40% have absorbed it so far, leaving a stealth correction with only 46% of S&P stocks above their 200-day. Not a bubble on his math: tech PE fell from 21 to 20 since April 2025.

Why listen: A clean framework for the rates-versus-earnings standoff, plus named positions: short-dated TIPS, Bitcoin at 60K, European banks.

▶ 18:05 Debt with no non-economic buyers, reverse crowding out, 5.3% yields, bubble test▶ 26:15 Fed model math, stealth correction internals, 1994 and 2022 analogs▶ 1:01:18 The 60-20-20 portfolio: TIPS, loans, gold, Bitcoin, European banks, lower beta ahead

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I didn't invent the line, but I've been using it a lot in that is bond traders can stop panicking when central bankers start panicking.Jim Bianco▶ hear it at 8:54

#2 The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost

The Bond Pivot: Jim Bianco on Why it’s Time to Start Buying Bonds

Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) · Oct 5 · 59 min

Jim Bianco ends a 6-year bond bear call: US yields of 5.5% now match nominal growth of 3%-ish inflation plus 3%-plus real growth, so bonds are fairly valued, not cheap. The math is duration: at 5.5% yield and 5.5 duration, yields must rise a full 1% before a holder loses money, versus 30 basis points in 2020. Entry scales up at high-5s and 6%.

Why listen: A long-standing bond bear flips to buying duration via TIPS while the Fed's October credibility test looms the week before midterms.

▶ 3:11 Duration math, nominal GDP as fair value, sticky goods inflation▶ 8:54 Fed credibility, cuts with rising long yields, October hike dilemma▶ 27:34 Long TIPS as hedged entry, Europe and Japan pulling US yields up

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Like you got nominal GDP, 6.6%, credit growth at 3%. You want 10-year treasuries at like 4% with the Fed at 3%, like it just, it doesn't make sense.Aidan Garib▶ hear it at 7:19

#3 Forward Guidance

America’s AI Boom Is Squeezing Main Street | Weekly Roundup

Aidan Garib (PGM Global / National Bank of Canada) · Oct 4

Garib argues US long-end yields are rising on a repriced Fed terminal rate, not inflation expectations or term premium: nominal GDP at 6.6% against credit growth of 3% do not square with a 10-year near 4% and the Fed at 3%. Growth is narrow, carried by hyperscaler capex up over 90% year over year in 2026 while housing stalls. The Fed hikes to flatten the curve and pull mortgage rates down.

Why listen: A clean decomposition of the Treasury selloff into Fed path rather than fiscal fear, with chart evidence to test it.

▶ 3:09 Decomposing 10-year yields: term premium flat, risk-neutral rate up, nominal GDP 6.6%▶ 8:40 Hyperscaler capex, narrow labor gains, housing stall, why the Fed hikes to flatten▶ 43:40 Europe versus Japan export war; German bankruptcies rising every month since COVID

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It's a game of dominoes, Dan. We're not debating here the quality of the technology and how it's going to change all our lives. We're debating what it takes to create that.Peter Boockvar▶ hear it at 33:42

#4 RiskReversal Pod

Bond Market Dominoes: The Path to 6% Rates with Peter Boockvar

Peter Boockvar (One Point BFG Wealth Partners) · Oct 9

Boockvar argues the bond market, not the Fed, now sets the cost of capital: investors have started charging for sovereign deficits in Japan, France and the US at the same time hyperscalers tap an estimated $500 billion of debt this year. The damage already shows at the credit margin, with CCC spreads above 1,000 basis points and 15% yields.

Why listen: A compact map of the crowding-out chain from French OATs to CCC spreads, ahead of bank earnings and hyperscaler capex prints.

▶ 3:17 Fed following the curve; Japan and France drive global yields; US deficit comparison▶ 11:25 Interest-expense crowding out, CCC spreads above 1,000 bps, refinancing shock▶ 39:25 Bank earnings setup: deposit costs, nominal consumer, loan demand after the hike

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then why, as a bondholder, I should demand anything less than nominal GDP growth in 30 years for me to buy? Why should I demand less than 6%?Alfonso Peccatiello▶ hear it at 14:31

#5 The Macro Trading Floor

6% Yields Next & Will Stonks Handle It?

Alfonso Peccatiello (Macro Compass), Brent Donnelly (Spectra Markets) · Oct 9

Peccatiello argues US yields are hunting a new equilibrium: core nominal GDP runs at 6%, the 30-year at 5.62% is still 40 basis points short of it, so a 10-year below 5.5% and a 30-year below 6% are not equilibrium. Donnelly pairs that with a tactical QQQ short from 753, stop 772.50, target 710 to 715, triggered by bad breadth at the highs and a turn in Bitcoin and silver.

Why listen: A clean framework for 6% long bonds and why that repricing, not recession, is the near-term equity risk.

▶ 4:59 Donnelly's QQQ short setup, breadth and MOVE event study, 2007/2015/2021 clusters▶ 12:59 Peccatiello's nominal-GDP yardstick, 3.25% neutral, term premium, 6% 30-year fair value▶ 33:08 What stops the trend: AI capex inflection, hyperscaler calls, fiscal tightening

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France has gone from being the safe borrower within the Eurozone to being more of a degrading creditIan Smith▶ hear it at 3:33

#6 Unhedged

Is France too blasé about borrowing costs?

Ian Smith (Financial Times) · Oct 8 · 22 min

Ian Smith's case: France is a degrading credit, not yet a crisis. The 10-year yield sits close to 5%, the highest since 2002, the spread over Bunds is above 1.5 percentage points, the widest since the Eurozone debt crisis, and debt approaches 120% of GDP into an April presidential election with no budget passed.

Why listen: A short, clear account of why French debt is a slow-burning credit story and what would bring the ECB in.

▶ 1:36 The levels: yield, spread, debt ratio, and the corporate-sovereign inversion▶ 5:33 Why this is not a 2010s rerun and what the ECB can do▶ 13:52 The ECB trigger: let France suffer until contagion spreads

Also on the show's page

The rates are absolutely unsustainable, Jack. I don't know if it's going to be a matter of weeks, but I wouldn't even say months. I would say it's either weeks or days, Jack.Jay Mintzmeyer▶ hear it at 30:11

#7 Monetary Matters

The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History

Jay Mintzmeyer (Value Investors Edge) · Oct 7

Mintzmeyer calls the top in tanker rates: VLCC spot at $1 million to $1.2 million per day, 25 to 30 times normal, is unsustainable within days or weeks because Hormuz flows are already back to 70 to 80 percent of pre-conflict. Tanker equities are a hold, BWET a hazard, and the next cycle sits in dry bulk, where Capesize rates at 2.5X normal leave room.

Why listen: A peak-cycle tanker call from a specialist with a 41% IRR over 11 years, with the rotation into dry bulk stated plainly.

▶ 0:00 Spot and one-year VLCC rates, record asset values, the 25 times move▶ 28:21 Rates versus assets versus equities; why BWET breaks when rates roll▶ 47:21 Dry bulk case: Capesize rates, CMBT, Guinea iron ore ton-miles

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Demand is off the charts and visibility is tricky.Stacy Rasgon▶ hear it at 4:18

#8 Monetary Matters

Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon

Stacy Rasgon (Bernstein Research) · Oct 8

Rasgon's thesis: the semiconductor cycle has not peaked. SOX is up roughly 80% year to date while earnings are up more than 100%, so multiples have compressed into a market pricing a peak that the order books contradict. Nvidia guides 70% revenue growth next year, haircut to the land, power and shell it can see being built.

Why listen: A sell-side veteran lays out the peak-versus-not-peak math on Nvidia, Broadcom, memory and semicap in one sitting.

▶ 0:00 Why multiples compress into a feared peak while estimates rise▶ 14:41 Nvidia and Broadcom guidance math, implied multiples, memory peak fears▶ 28:29 WFE forecasts, clean-room constraint, semicap picks

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the market is absorbing a rates shock and acting like one would expect a market to act during a rates shock, except for those AI names, which are invulnerable to it.Robert Armstrongat 5:35

#9 Unhedged

There is only one trade

Robert Armstrong (Financial Times) · Oct 6 · 20 min

Armstrong reads the breadth collapse as a rates shock absorbed by everything except AI: S&P 500 members above their 50-day average fell from 70% on August 14 to 28% while the index went sideways. The adjustment is a one-off repricing if the 10-year stabilizes above 5%; the view breaks if yields keep rising or the AI leaders roll over.

Why listen: The clearest mechanical account of why one trade now carries the index, the dollar and credit, with the falsifier named.

2:00 Breadth collapse data, eight names holding the index, broker doublespeak on concentration5:35 Rates-shock mechanics: bond substitutes crushed, real rates, breadth leading yields11:22 Unhedged dollar exposure, AI contingency across assets, Q3 earnings and IPO risks

Also on the show's page

Most simply, if you're holding a portfolio that contains bond and stocks, having a positive correlation means that there is nowhere to hide.Carolin Pfluegerat 25:09

#10 Odd Lots

Why Treasuries Are 'Risky' Again

Carolin Pflueger (University of Chicago; Chicago Fed) · Oct 5 · 51 min

Pflueger's thesis: Treasuries have turned stock-like, and the positive bond-stock correlation since 2020 is a priced risk premium rather than an inflation story. Her estimates attribute the majority of the 10-year yield rise from 2020 through 2025 to that shift, against roughly a quarter of the mid-80s to 2010s decline explained by bonds becoming better hedges. Long-run inflation expectations stayed stable throughout.

Why listen: The cleanest framework this week for telling a risk premium apart from inflation fear in the Treasury selloff.

13:47 Learning from actions: flat 2021 reaction function, May 2021 surprise, coefficient 0 to 123:37 Bond-stock co-movement regimes pre- and post-2000, luck versus policy, gradualism30:03 Pricing bond risk: 11.5% in the 80s, quarter of decline, majority of 2020-2025 rise

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