Every Saturday · The Week in Podcasts

The Week in Podcasts · Oct 17 to Oct 23

Visser on AI, Bianco and Rosenberg on 5% Treasuries

Jordi Visser says the only macro thing he cares about is AI. Bianco, Aitken and Rosenberg see asymmetry in Treasuries above 5%. Plus Ken Griffin on the AI bubble, the Gulf diesel crunch and Japan's turn.

84 episodes from 38 shows · the top 10 · every episode at the end

This is, in my opinion, a favorite, meaning I think this will be the best performing asset in the next year, and it's on the tote board at about 100 to 1 right now.Jordi Visser▶ hear it at 1:03:29

#1 The Julia La Roche Show

Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong, and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now

Jordi Visser (Visser Labs) · Oct 22 · 65 min

Visser says the only macro thing he cares about is AI, which he says went agentic in September. Anthropic and OpenAI, he says, are on track to take **combined ARR from $30 billion at the end of last year to about $170 billion by the end of this one**, more than the whole software stack. His call for the next 12 months is crypto, the asset he expects to perform best and says the market still prices at about 100 to 1.

Why listen: A macro investor once called a perma-bear says AI is the only variable that matters, with the revenue and index-concentration numbers behind it and crypto as the one cheap, under-owned asset.

▶ 1:20 AI as the only macro variable; semiconductors, K-shaped economy, index concentration since 2007▶ 10:42 Two economies, SaaS multiple compression and the bank multiple thesis▶ 50:07 Agentic compute bull case, ARR path, hyperscaler debt, 20 to 30% correction risk

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we do think that essentially all of the increase in prices over the last few weeks is driven by an increase in the risk premium rather than an increase in the fair value of BrentDan Struven▶ hear it at 3:29

#2 Goldman Sachs Exchanges

Why Oil Prices Are Surging Despite Recovering Supply

Dan Struven (Goldman Sachs) · Oct 23 · 14 min

Struven's thesis: Brent at $112 is **almost entirely risk premium**, which Goldman sizes at $27 per barrel against an $85 fair value, so the crude skew is symmetric. The asymmetry has migrated to refined products and European gas: Gulf diesel exports run at 40% of 2025 levels versus 110% for crude, and TTF could hit €150 if Qatari LNG stays depressed.

Why listen: A clean decomposition of the oil spike into premium versus fundamentals, plus explicit scenario levels for TTF, copper and gold.

▶ 0:00 Brent $112 decomposed: $27 risk premium versus $85 fair value, forecast skew▶ 3:02 Diesel at 40% of normal exports, gasoline yield switch, $20 freight surge▶ 8:32 TTF €70 versus €150 scenarios, 2022 comparison, copper tariff and scrap squeeze

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if we reach a point where the provisioning of GPUs exceeds demand for GPUs, marginal pricing will actually go into freefall.Ken Griffin▶ hear it at 7:56

#3 Bloomberg Podcasts

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin Says AI ‘Almost Certainly’ in a Bubble; Trump Has 'Mixed Scorecard'

Ken Griffin (Citadel) · Oct 21 · 49 min

Griffin calls AI "almost certainly" a bubble, yet one intertwined with a real transformation, as 1999 and the railroads were. The market is now doing research on who earns the rents from a hundreds-of-billions to $1 trillion data-center build. The variable that decides the AI trade: **if GPU provisioning exceeds demand, marginal pricing goes into freefall**, dark-fiber style, and year 7, 8, 9 revenue models for 5 or 6 year old chips break.

Why listen: The largest market maker frames the semis drawdown as discernment, not deleveraging, and names the GPU overcapacity mechanics that would break the bull case.

▶ 6:21 Semis reset as research, GPU overcapacity and useful-life risk, telecom 2000 analogy▶ 12:52 Bubble verdict, 1999 internet and railroad parallels, who survives▶ 33:43 $40 trillion deficit, 30-year yield, bond market warning, dollar weakness scenario

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And even spending $220 billion in CapEx this year, we're leaving a meaningful amount of demand on the table.Andy Jassy▶ hear it at 13:52

#4 The a16z Show

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy on Why Amazon Is Investing $220 Billion in AI

Andy Jassy (Amazon) · Oct 23 · 61 min

Jassy's thesis: AI demand outruns even a $220 billion 2026 capex budget, with **AWS capacity for 2026 sold out and 2027 largely sold out**, so the constraint is supply, not returns. The evidence is AWS growing 36.7% year over year on a $169 billion run rate while the AI line alone passed $25 billion within 3 years. The falsifier is enterprise inference adoption stalling on cost.

Why listen: The largest cloud capex budget explained from the inside: lead times, breakeven math, and why supply constraints persist past 2027.

▶ 10:13 Capex cash cycle: lead times, useful lives, breakeven, free cash flow headwinds▶ 20:14 Barbell demand, capacity sold out for 2026 and 2027, shortages beyond 2027▶ 31:08 Graviton and Tranium price performance; inference cost as the adoption gate

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Either we have to move the retirement age to 70 years old, option one, which is extremely, extremely hard to do, or like in any good emerging market crisis, you have to devalue the currency by 50%.Louis-Vincent Gave▶ hear it at 1:00:36

#5 MacroVoices

MacroVoices #554 Dr. Anas Alhajji + Louis-Vincent Gave: Developing Crises in Middle-East and France

Anas Alhajji (Energy Outlook Advisors), Louis-Vincent Gave (Gavekal) · Oct 22 · 99 min

Alhajji: the Three Seas crisis (Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea) has permanently rewired energy markets; crude through Hormuz runs at 80 to 90% of pre-conflict levels but products at only 25 to 35%, so **the diesel shortage, not crude, is the binding constraint**. Gave: France is in an emerging market style debt crisis at a 5% deficit, with retirement at 70 or a 50% devaluation the only exits.

Why listen: Two live crises mapped in one sitting: product shortages that outlast any ceasefire, and a French sovereign the market has not fully repriced.

▶ 1:41 Riyadh lessons: Saudi bypass pipelines, Hormuz crude vs product flows▶ 21:49 Refinery losses, Black Sea diesel, crack spreads, China's refining spare capacity▶ 48:48 France: fiscal arithmetic, foreign-held debt, euro exit mechanics, systemic risks

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The way I would phrase it is instead of bond vigilantes, we have capex vigilantes pretty much.Alfonso Peccatiello▶ hear it at 7:03

#6 The Macro Trading Floor

The Credit Market Boogeyman

Alfonso Peccatiello (Macro Compass), Brent Donnelly (Spectra Markets) · Oct 23 · 36 min

No guest this week; Peccatiello and Donnelly frame the AI capex selloff as a choice between two readings. Either spreads, yields and equities reprice to a level where perceived return on equity wins and dips get bought, or capex vigilantes force hyperscalers to retrench. **Meta lifting forward commitments from $700 billion to $825 billion** while warning the funding window is closing is the test case. Both lean to the first, with wide error bars.

Why listen: The week's two credit stories, AI capex funding and France at 171 basis points, framed as the variables now driving rates, equities and FX.

▶ 1:57 AI capex credit squeeze, Meta's $825 billion commitments, two schools of thought▶ 12:52 Nasdaq sentiment, 10s from 535 to 495, buy-the-dip levels▶ 18:08 Fed hike odds, France at 171bp, Bank of Canada, broken FX correlations

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I'm not arguing that bonds are cheap. I am arguing that they are no longer expensive.Jim Bianco▶ hear it at 1:44

#7 Monetary Matters (Jack Farley)

Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years

Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) · Oct 18 · 76 min

Bianco turned constructive on Treasuries at the start of the month, the first time in 6 years, after every yield from 7s to 30s cleared 5%. Fair value is nominal growth of 5-6%, built from 3% sticky inflation and 2% real growth; **bonds are no longer expensive, not cheap**. He is long duration and sees the Fed needing three more hikes to reach a 4.5% funds rate.

Why listen: A 6-year bond bear capitulates on valuation grounds, with the inflation, oil and credit math laid out plainly for a 5% yield world.

▶ 1:44 The bond call: 5-6% nominal fair value and the loss math▶ 11:23 Oil at $200 all-in: tanker costs, carrier groups, crack spreads▶ 50:09 Corporate deleveraging since 2008; CCC detention, CoreWeave and AI credit

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You lose less if bonds keep going down than you make if bonds rally a bit for any reason.James Aitken▶ hear it at 4:19

#8 On The Tape (Danny Moses)

James Aitken: It Pays To Shave With Occam's Razor

James Aitken (Aitken Advisors) · Oct 21 · 64 min

Aitken's call is that bonds, Treasury TIPS above all, **now offer asymmetry for the first time in a long time**: losses if yields grind higher are smaller than gains on any rally. 10-year TIPS real yields near 3% and 30-year higher make the case for inflation-benchmarked allocators. The hedge is partial: elasticity to a growth shock is lower in a sticky-inflation regime.

Why listen: A plumber's read on Treasury auction support, a Fed still hiking, and where the AI reassessment bites next.

▶ 3:16 The bond call, TIPS near 3%, and government-sponsored capex as demand▶ 25:28 Warsh, Bessent in charge, why hikes continue despite midterm pricing▶ 32:08 New Zealand as bellwether, refined products squeeze, rotation to free cash flow

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he said if you're in a dark room you stand still because if you move you're going to trip and I think the Fed is going to trip.David Rosenberg▶ hear it at 27:46

#9 The Julia La Roche Show

#422 David Rosenberg: The Fed Is Going to Trip, Recession Odds Now Above 50%

David Rosenberg (Rosenberg Research) · Oct 20 · 77 min

Rosenberg says the Warsh Fed is tightening into a supply shock with the 2s10s curve barely 30 basis points wide, a quarter of the 120 that usually prevails when hiking starts. Recession odds sit above 50-50, with real GDP under 1% next year. The asymmetry is in Treasuries: **the 10-year must break 6% to lose money over 12 months**; a return to 4.5% pays 14%.

Why listen: A contrarian Treasuries-over-equities call with explicit payoff math, set against four priced hikes and households at a record 73% equity weight.

▶ 0:00 Market breadth, AI capex concentration, savings rate and the wealth-effect consumer▶ 14:48 Fed tightening into a flat curve and supply shock; recession odds above 50-50▶ 48:30 Treasury allocation math, household 73% equity weight, 10-year payoff asymmetry

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I actually think over the next six to nine months, the big theme is going to be a flatter yield curve, you know, where the Bank of Japan movesJesper Koll▶ hear it at 55:35

#10 Top Traders Unplugged

GM108: Maybe Japan Is Finally Changing for Real ft. Jesper Koll

Jesper Koll (Monex Group / Japan Optimist) · Oct 21 · 63 min

Koll argues Japan is at its **first inflection in 30 years**: a 10-year JGB at 3% and dividend yields double Wall Street's are pulling pension, insurer, and retail savings back onshore, ending the Abe-Kuroda outflow cycle. Labor scarcity and generational CEO turnover force governance change and industrial consolidation. The call: BoJ policy rate near 2.5% by next summer and a flatter curve.

Why listen: A resident Japan bull who names his own falsifier: the 2027 budget must show scaled public-private projects or bond-market fears return.

▶ 12:26 Savings repatriation inflection: JGB at 3%, dividend yields, pension and retail reallocation▶ 21:29 JGB market reprivatization, 14 traders left, BoJ path to 2.5%▶ 51:08 Governance: CEO turnover, conglomerate structure, consolidation as the bull case

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