Every Saturday · The Week in Podcasts

The Week in Podcasts · Oct 10 to Oct 16

CoreWeave at 1,100bp and the AI Credit Test

CoreWeave's 1,100bp CDS splits the bears from the bubble buyers. Plus France's debt politics, Russia-China-Iran from Brazil’s Market Makers, the oil spike that never came and factory-built nuclear.

66 episodes from 40 shows · the top 10 · every episode at the end

OpenAI went bankrupt tomorrow, and I'm not making that prediction, but let's just say that it did. I think the US economy would go into a recession.Steve Eisman▶ hear it at 10:51

#1 The Compound and Friends

How OpenAI Could Cause a US Recession With Steve Eisman

Steve Eisman (Neuberger Berman) · Oct 16 · 49 min

Eisman frames the AI complex as a single concentrated trade with no moats: open-weight models at one-tenth the price force a price war on Anthropic and OpenAI, their funding stalls, and the commitments chained through Oracle and the hyperscalers unwind into a US recession. The chain starts at NVIDIA, where **70% of accounts receivable comes from five customers**.

Why listen: The clearest mapping yet of how two private labs transmit stress to NVIDIA, Oracle, Treasuries and 65% of the S&P.

▶ 9:50 Concentration chain from NVIDIA to hyperscalers to Oracle to two labs▶ 14:58 End of token maxing and the OpenAI and Anthropic revenue deceleration▶ 20:14 Price war transmission mechanism to recession; Oracle's backlog round trip

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

it is not tin hats time I would say that we have a very speculative market that is based on expectations of the future rather than what is happening right now and people are jumpyRobert Armstrong▶ hear it at 12:23

#2 Unhedged (FT)

The AI boom stumbles

Robert Armstrong (Financial Times) · Oct 15 · 23 min

Armstrong calls the sell-off a flutter: the Nasdaq sits exactly where it was on May 13 despite Kospi down 8% and CoreWeave CDS at 1,100 basis points. The only variable that matters is **whether AI is a profitable business**; if yes, the debt scare is noise, if no, the financing structure is irrelevant anyway.

Why listen: A clean framework for separating AI credit noise from the one question that decides the trade, plus a sober hedge discussion.

▶ 8:53 CoreWeave CDS at 1,100bp and why AI profitability is the only question▶ 12:23 Anthropic revenue miss, Nasdaq flat since May 13, government bonds as hedge▶ 15:43 Boring markets as shelter, growth risk if the bubble pops, flutter verdict

Also on Apple · Spotify · the show's page

Coming into this, it has been our call, and it continues to be our call. We won't see the next Fed hike until the December meetingAbiel Reinhart▶ hear it at 17:19

#3 At Any Rate (JPM)

US Rates - US CPI & TIPS: On firmer footing

Abiel Reinhart (JPMorgan US Economics Team) · Oct 15 · 24 min

JPMorgan reads September **core CPI at 0.33 versus its 0.18 forecast** as a broad-based re-acceleration. Reinhart's core PCE estimate lifts the 3-month rate from 2.0% to 2.8% and the annual rate back to 3.1%. Core goods, running 2.2% annualized, carry the persistence into early 2027. The Fed call stays December for the next hike.

Why listen: The largest upside CPI surprise versus swap pricing since March 2024 resets TIPS carry, the PCE-CPI wedge and October Fed risk.

▶ 0:08 Print versus forecast, core PCE translation, 3-month and annual rates▶ 2:57 Swap-market surprise history, TIPS carry, why core goods inflation persists into 2027▶ 15:51 PCE-CPI wedge halving, October Fed debate, Warsh as pivot for breakevens

Also on Apple · the show's page

I don't think that tension is going to be able to survive. At some point, she's going to have to disappoint someone.Shahin Vallée▶ hear it at 19:07

#4 Odd Lots

The French Political Crisis That's Turning Into a Debt Crisis

Shahin Vallée (German Council on Foreign Relations) · Oct 16 · 59 min

Vallée's thesis: **the French spread is repricing politics**; the budget itself came in line. The Meloni-style transition is being de-priced because a Le Pen presidency could face a Mélenchon-dominated parliament after the 2027 general election. Le Pen's October 6 proposal for a constitutional fiscal rule mandates 0.5% of GDP of annual adjustment until debt returns to 60% of GDP, with no pension or spending measures named to deliver it.

Why listen: The clearest account of why neither OMT nor TPI is politically available to France before 2027, and what would unlock them.

▶ 6:44 Why political risk repriced: runoff math and the de-pricing of a Meloni-style outcome▶ 15:06 Le Pen's October 6 constitutional fiscal rule and its credibility gap▶ 30:34 Why OMT and TPI require a fiscal path France cannot yet commit to

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

So when you see it trading at these levels, what the market, the debt market's trying to tell you is, this stuff gets restructured. You're not getting a dollar.Paul Kedrosky▶ hear it at 8:06

#5 Prof G Markets

CoreWeave Is Imploding, And Taking AI Stocks Down With It

Paul Kedrosky (SK Ventures), Mark Zandi (Moody’s Analytics) · Oct 15 · 37 min

Kedrosky calls the CoreWeave selloff a solvency repricing: token prices fall roughly 13-fold a year, so a debt-funded neocloud **must double token sales every 90 days to stand still**. Debt at 80-odd cents on the dollar prices restructuring, not repayment. Zandi supplies the macro backdrop: CPI at 3.7%, the 10-year at 5.25%, and a Fed leaning toward further hikes.

Why listen: Clearest case this week that neocloud distress is structural, with a correction call for first half of next year.

▶ 2:28 CoreWeave debt spiral, token deflation math, debt market pricing restructuring▶ 8:38 Contagion scope, Nvidia backstop rejected, correction timing, private-market bubble, Anthropic concentration▶ 19:34 Zandi on 3.7% CPI, war costs per household, Fed hike path

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

Our punchline really is, guys, it's great, it's a bubble, let's buy it.Dirk Willer▶ hear it at 0:09

#6 The Meb Faber Show

Citi's Dirk Willer on Why You Buy the Bubble | #654

Dirk Willer (Citi) · Oct 16 · 50 min

Citi's Dirk Willer says buy the bubble, with explicit exit rules. The payback is the issue: **equity market cap sits at 240% of GDP versus just over 100% in 2000**, so the eventual bust brings a deeper recession, aggressive Fed cuts and Treasury buying at the back end.

Why listen: A systematic framework for riding a bubble, with explicit exit rules, Fed-cycle timing for bonds and a 3-to-1 dollar model.

▶ 1:13 Bubble definition, 2000 liquidity analogue, why the cycle is still early▶ 9:41 Warsh shadow rate, hiking-cycle rules for equities and bonds▶ 20:01 Dollar model, sector rotation, Brazil, Korea and Taiwan positioning

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

but the reading of many people, and mine too, is that today the United States would not confront China to defend Taiwan.Professor HOC, translated from Portuguese▶ hear it at 17:29

#7 Market Makers (BR)

#424 | Russia, China, Iran and the US: The New Geopolitical Map in 2026 (in Portuguese: “Rússia, China, Irã e EUA: o novo mapa da geopolítica em 2026”)

Professor HOC · Oct 15 · 115 min In Portuguese · English subtitles on YouTube

Professor HOC argues that power, not economics, now drives state decisions, so conflicts persist rather than resolve. The failure to reopen Hormuz has reset perceptions: in his read, **the US today would not fight China over Taiwan**, inviting Russian and Chinese tests. China's export model is the other fault line: capacity for 55 million cars against world demand near 25 million.

Why listen: A compact map of how perceived US weakness after Iran feeds Russia, Taiwan risk and China's overcapacity endgame.

▶ 10:21 Hormuz as a credibility shock; Putin's Lithuania test; Xi's Taiwan warning▶ 16:39 Taiwan scenarios, TSMC dependence, Japan rearming and the nuclear domino▶ 32:53 China overcapacity and a century of persistent trade imbalances ending in crisis

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

This led to well-reasoned concerns that oil could move up to $150, $200 a barrel. And these concerns proved wrong.Anna Parker▶ hear it at 8:40

#8 The Bid (BlackRock)

275: How Geopolitics Is Redefining Defense, Energy, Technology and Global Markets

Anna Parker (BlackRock), Yasmin Meissner (BlackRock) · Oct 16 · 27 min

Parker and Meissner argue that U.S.-China competition, fragmentation, and the Iran war are rewiring the global economy around resilience in energy, defense, and AI, with those three pillars now competing for capital. The data point: 20% of world oil supply was displaced at the outbreak, yet **Middle Eastern exports are back at 98% of pre-war levels** and $150 to $200 crude never printed.

Why listen: A compact map of the stabilizers that capped crude and the choke points, rare earths and Taiwan semis, that decide the next shock.

▶ 7:53 Why crude held: Gulf pipeline bypass, record stockpile release, China import cut▶ 12:28 Defense tour: Patriot depletion, counter-drone microwaves, Ukraine drone output, large satellites▶ 20:46 Choke points: rare earths, Taiwan semis, refinery strikes, U.S. price floor

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

And is that a minus 18% in the market? No. Right? That is a minus 35 to 50% in the market? I'm not sure it is going to happen, but it would be easy for it to happen.Ben Inker▶ hear it at 1:08:23

#9 Monetary Matters (Jack Farley)

The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMO

Ben Inker (GMO) · Oct 14 · 72 min

Ben Inker of GMO ($80 billion) argues **equity supply will prick the bubble within 12 to 18 months**. SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs could add roughly 6% of US market cap in a year, above the prior record of 4%.

Why listen: A quantified, dated supply catalyst for the AI trade, with an inelastic-market mechanism and a 35 to 50% bust scenario.

▶ 5:04 Supply inelasticity, SpaceX unlocks, IPO share of market cap versus 1999 and 2021▶ 30:13 Credit spreads, triple C distress, AI concentration in corporate debt▶ 1:05:39 Bust mechanics: training spend collapse, compute glut, defaults, 35 to 50% drawdown

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube

You don't make nuclear cheap by building one perfect reactor and hope that it works out. You make it cheap by building the same good reactor a thousand times and improving it at every generation.Yasir Arafat▶ hear it at 6:21

#10 MacroVoices

MacroVoices #554 Yasir Arafat: Mass Manufacturing Nuclear Power Plants

Yasir Arafat (Aalo Atomics) · Oct 15 · 73 min

Aalo Atomics CTO Yasir Arafat argues nuclear gets cheap by building the same 10 MWe sodium-cooled reactor 100 times a year instead of one perfect gigawatt plant. First unit lands at mid-teens cents per kWh, **under 10 cents by the 10th reactor**, coal and gas parity at 50 units per year. Data centers set the demand: Bank of America's 125 GW needed by 2030 against roughly 25 GW of identified supply.

Why listen: A concrete cost curve and fuel-cycle roadmap for factory-built nuclear, with the LEU-not-HALEU choice as the differentiator.

▶ 19:34 Cost curve to coal and gas parity, supply chain as the binding constraint▶ 27:09 LEU versus HALEU, fuel fabrication headroom, recycling and fast spectrum▶ 57:58 Market Desk: Centrus Energy long-dated put sale

Also on Apple · Spotify · YouTube · the show's page

◆ The full edition · paid

Deep dives on the top 10, more verified quotes and this week's trade ideas from the guests.

Read the full edition →

14 days free · then $20/month

All episodes this week

◆ CIO Brief · paid

Every trading day: the calls that matter, argued across the research houses.

Read it free for 14 days →